Energy Market Briefing

Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis struck several southern Saudi cities on Tuesday, including Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jazan and Najran, wounding at least 73 people and briefly halting operations at Aramco facilities in Jazan. The Saudi-led coalition called it a dangerous escalation and vowed a firm response, while Houthi officials threatened a broader campaign deeper into the kingdom.

An average of just 10 commodity vessels a day have transited the Strait of Hormuz over the past ten days, the lowest rate since May, as US and Iranian strikes on tankers continue. Iran's Supreme National Security Council still says it plans to declare a formal exclusion zone around the strait, though it has not yet done so.

Qatar's foreign ministry has told US counterparts that reopening the strait is now a priority, warning of an 'industrial catastrophe' if the standoff drags on. Doha's push adds diplomatic weight alongside wider Gulf state pressure for de-escalation.

NBP Winter 2026 gas closed Monday at 6.25p/kWh, up 2.0% on the day, while Winter 2026 power closed at 14.67p/kWh, up 0.8%. Further seasons across the curve firmed too, tracking the wider Gulf risk premium.

TTF gas traded at 74.86 EUR/MWh, up around 2.1% on the day and close to its highest level in more than three years. Brent crude rose to $99.12 a barrel, up 2.2%, as fresh Houthi strikes reinforced fears that Gulf supply disruption is spreading rather than easing.

The IEA's earlier record 400 million barrel strategic reserve release has done little to offset the loss of an estimated 11 to 16 million barrels a day of Gulf crude flows, analysts say, keeping the market reliant on genuine de-escalation to bring prices down.

Six empty LNG carriers are heading back toward the Arabian Gulf and one has already crossed into Qatari waters, Bloomberg reported on 7 September, suggesting QatarEnergy may be positioning for a resumption of exports. Two tankers that attempted the passage in recent days turned back.

Qatar's LNG shipments are running at a fraction of their usual volume after force majeure was extended into November, with 15 carriers still idled behind the strait. The country is maintaining only minimal flows to nearby Kuwait to keep its Ras Laffan complex operational.

With Qatari cargoes largely absent, Europe has leaned harder on other LNG sources and pipeline flows to keep filling storage, one reason the EU's gas inventories remain someway behind their normal seasonal path this far into the injection season.