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Energy Market Briefing

Friday 6 November 2026 · Generated 10:00 GMT · Past 24 hours

Oil rebounded and UK gas and power rose at the 5 November close as new tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz outweighed hopes of a US-Iran deal. Gas supplied more than half of Britain's power this morning, and EU gas storage is still being drawn down well below its five-year norm.

UK Gas▲

NBP Sum-27 up 4.2% at the 5 November close

UK Power▲

Sum-27 up 2.6% as gas leads

EU Storage▼

73.8% full, 17.5pp under norm

Market bias

Firmer, upside riskSofter · Firmer

Tanker attacks and a stalled US-Iran deal are pushing oil and gas back up after Wednesday's sharp fall.

UK gas Sum-27

5.49p/kWh

+4.2% day-on-day

UK power Sum-27

12.43p/kWh

+2.6% day-on-day

EU gas storage

73.8% full

17.5pp below 5yr norm

TTF prompt

89.60EUR/MWh

+1.4% on the day

Brent crude

98.29$/bbl

+3.9% on the day

Today's headlines

1 · GEOPOLITICS
Oil rebounded as new tanker attacks near Hormuz outweighed hopes of a US-Iran deal, which has still not been agreed.
Oil rebounds after Wednesday's fall
Brent settled at 98.29 $/bbl at the 5 November close, up 3.9%, after Wednesday's drop of nearly 10% on hopes of a US-Iran deal. WTI settled at 90.52 $/bbl.
New tanker incidents near Hormuz
The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported at least five vessel incidents since Sunday. Iran's Revolutionary Guard said two oil tankers and a tugboat caught fire near the strait, which it said had tried to use unauthorised routes.
No deal yet
Iran has said it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz if its demands on sanctions and frozen assets are met, with Qatar mediating, and no breakthrough has been announced. Eurasia Group has cut its odds of a US-Iran deal to 10% from 20% and says renewed escalation could push Brent to 110-125 $/bbl.
2 · GAS AND POWER
UK gas and power rose across the nearer seasons at the 5 November close, with gas rising by more than power.
Nearer seasons rose most
At the 5 November close UK gas Sum-27 rose 4.2% to 5.49 p/kWh and Win-27 rose 3.0%, while UK power Sum-27 rose 2.6% to 12.43 p/kWh and Win-27 rose 2.2%.
Further out the curve eased
UK gas Win-29 fell 0.7% to 2.72 p/kWh and UK power Win-29 fell 1.2% to 7.56 p/kWh, so the move was concentrated in the nearer seasons.
TTF background
EU TTF front month closed at 89.60 EUR/MWh, up 1.4% from 88.34 EUR/MWh. UK carbon eased to 66.44 GBP/tonne and EU carbon to 88.83 EUR/tonne.
3 · GENERATION
Gas supplied more than half of Britain's power this morning while wind output was low, keeping power prices tied to gas.
Gas carried the system
At 09:40 GMT on 6 November gas supplied about 56% of Britain's power, 21.5 GW of 38.4 GW demand, while wind supplied only about 8% at 3.2 GW.
Other sources
Nuclear supplied 5.1 GW, biomass 3.2 GW and net interconnector imports about 2.1 GW, led by Norway at 1.4 GW. The data page warns its solar estimate is likely overstated and one data feed was down, so treat the mix as indicative.
Why it matters for prices
With gas setting the marginal price for most of the day, a firmer gas market feeds straight into UK power prices, which is what the nearer seasons did at the close.

Forward curve & seasonal movesi

UK powerUK gas NBPmonthly forward, p/kWh · market close on 5 November 2026

5 Nov 2026

Season	Power	Δ	Gas	Δ
Sum-27	12.43	+2.60%	5.49	+4.21%
Win-27	12.27	+2.23%	5.22	+3.03%
Sum-28	7.78	+0.82%	3.17	+3.14%
Win-28	8.47	+0.58%	3.32	+1.43%
Sum-29	7.00	-0.13%	2.40	-0.03%
Win-29	7.56	-1.15%	2.72	-0.72%

Seasonal contracts in p/kWh, change is day on day, as of market close on 5 November 2026.

UK generation mixi

Gas (CCGT + OCGT)21.49 GW56.0%

Nuclear5.13 GW13.4%

Biomass3.22 GW8.4%

Wind3.20 GW8.3%

Interconnectors2.13 GW5.6%

Solar1.03 GW2.7%

Hydro + pumped0.69 GW1.8%

Other1.46 GW3.8%

As of 6 November 2026, 09:40 GMT. Tap a fuel or a slice to isolate it, tap again to reset.

EU gas storagei

Now

73.8%

5yr norm

91.3%

-17.5pp vs 5yr normDashed line: 90% winter target

Winter 2026/27 target is 90% of capacity by 1 December, with Commission flexibility down to 80%. As of 4 November 2026.

Other commoditiesi

TTF▲+1.43%JKM▼-0.16%Brent▲+3.88%WTI▲+2.72%UK carbon▼-0.88%EU carbon▼-1.35%FTSE 100▼-0.43%GBPUSD▼-0.16%GBPEUR▼-0.06%Gold▲+0.68%TTF▲+1.43%JKM▼-0.16%Brent▲+3.88%WTI▲+2.72%UK carbon▼-0.88%EU carbon▼-1.35%FTSE 100▼-0.43%GBPUSD▼-0.16%GBPEUR▼-0.06%Gold▲+0.68%

Global gasiTTF▲+1.43%JKM▼-0.16%

OiliBrent▲+3.88%WTI▲+2.72%

CarboniUK carbon▼-0.88%EU carbon▼-1.35%

FTSE 100i▼-0.43%

ForexiGBPUSD▼-0.16%GBPEUR▼-0.06%

Goldi▲+0.68%

Past 6 months of daily closes. As of 5 November 2026. Change shown is the latest close against the previous close.